View Full Version : Real Estate slide?
The market here has gone from favoring sellers to buyers. I won't say it's been overnight...maybe over the last 3-6 months....but it has definitely cooled. Several of our neighbors our looking to sell and they are probably looking at roughly -20% off the price they would've gotten 6 months ago.
builder
08-28-06, 07:13 PM
yep. People are also in the market now for smaller, more urban residences. This does not mean to say that Charlotte's condo market is heating up since the cheapest thing in Uptown is still well above the average person's range. How many "affordable luxury" condos starting at $350k for 700 square feet does a city need?
WilliamJ
08-28-06, 08:40 PM
i saw something about this the other night. real estate supply has exceeded demand. when prices start to drop people will not be as motivated by $$ to sell. the appreciation will go back to a normal pace. they were specifically talking about metro DC, northern NJ and westchester NY areas.
it is very good example of market forces at work.
The inventory around here is really up compared to previous years. Sales are near the same dollar wise but just more houses on the market which equates to longer time on the market. My townhouse just sold last week. In past years places near me were selling in two-three days but mine took a little over a month. I still doubled my money and walked away happy.
Village Idiot
08-28-06, 09:57 PM
dont i know it
It differs from place to place. Trying to sell my Mom's house outside of Cleveland and the market sucks. Pulled my house in TN and in one week it jumped $4K.
I have talked to a lot of "Younger" people and they are definitely looking for the urban experience with a condo in some tower downtown. The only thing I warn them about are the urban schools if they are planning to have kids. Even if you go private you will find yourself driving 20-30 minutes out of town to get to the private school.
Once the kid is older and off to school I would consider an urban thing. Hell by that time that market will bust and I will be able to pick something up cheap.
kickazzz2000
08-29-06, 09:24 AM
We are moving to St. Louis in July and are definitely looking for the urban experience. It's a little trickier there because there are (recently) improved neighboorhoods surrounded by plain ol hoods.
No kids yet, so no problem with the schools, though that still limits resale value because it limits your buyers. We will deal with that when the time comes.
We are moving to St. Louis in July and are definitely looking for the urban experience. It's a little trickier there because there are (recently) improved neighboorhoods surrounded by plain ol hoods.
No kids yet, so no problem with the schools, though that still limits resale value because it limits your buyers. We will deal with that when the time comes.
In St Louis you can get the urban experience without actually being downtown. Check out the Wash. U area and Clayton.
kickazzz2000
08-29-06, 09:51 AM
In St Louis you can get the urban experience without actually being downtown. Check out the Wash. U area and Clayton.
Clayton is pricey..its sort of the southpark area of STL.
I like the Central West End..the area near Wash Medical Center. That way, I can walk to work too :trophy:
Freakshow
08-29-06, 09:51 AM
I'm expecting a big slide in certain parts of Charlotte. Especially the Uptown area. TOO many condos are going up. And even worse...they are being bought by investors that are planning on dumping them when the project is completed.
Buildings due to be done in 12+ months...investors are buying for a low earnest money deposit NOW. They are betting that as the project nears completion that the units will have appreciated...quite a bit. We are going to start seeing some of these things come to completion...then have 25% go on the market...LOOK OUT!
I'm expecting a big slide in certain parts of Charlotte. Especially the Uptown area. TOO many condos are going up. And even worse...they are being bought by investors that are planning on dumping them when the project is completed.
Buildings due to be done in 12+ months...investors are buying for a low earnest money deposit NOW. They are betting that as the project nears completion that the units will have appreciated...quite a bit. We are going to start seeing some of these things come to completion...then have 25% go on the market...LOOK OUT!
I'm suppose to to sign a purhcase agreement for my condo in NoDA but this is what I am afraid of. When this condo development went out on the market, the 1st phase was bought up pretty quick with a couple units left. Since then the 2nd phase of the development is not selling well at all.
I'm thinking about backing out of my reservation agreement and hold off till beginning of next year and seeing what the market looks like. I'm sure there will be more enticing housing available.
Freakshow
08-29-06, 02:00 PM
I'm really more worried about Uptown...lot of people buying $300,000 condos that think they are going to shoot up in value.
NoDa may be different.
If you are buying it because you want to live there...go for it. If you are looking to sell in a year...you are taking a risk.
Clayton is pricey..its sort of the southpark area of STL.
I like the Central West End..the area near Wash Medical Center. That way, I can walk to work too :trophy:
If you want a real urban feel with old brick warehouse feel try Soulard in STL.
It's not long term for me living in a condo but from the reports of housing on the decline, it might be a better bet for me to wait till next year to see how things play out.
Lowe's stock is down, Home Depot is down, Builders are down, REIT funds are down...
I might just look for a single family home if I wait till next year...
kickazzz2000
08-29-06, 03:22 PM
If you want a real urban feel with old brick warehouse feel try Soulard in STL.
I would but its too far from Metrolink. I like the option of taking the train if i feel like...or if its snowed.
I've heard Soulard is pretty cool though, its got that New Orleans feel to it...
I would but its too far from Metrolink. I like the option of taking the train if i feel like...or if its snowed.
I've heard Soulard is pretty cool though, its got that New Orleans feel to it...
They say it is the second largest to NO. I have been and not sure it is all that. They do have a parade though.
BTW STL pizza sucks. It is described as saltines with ketchup.
chipshot
08-29-06, 03:28 PM
Real Estate slide?
It's Electric!
It's Electric!
Ban Chip.
Boogie woogie woogie.
Ban Chip.
Boogie woogie woogie.
Who?
chipshot
08-29-06, 04:02 PM
Ban Chip.
Boogie woogie woogie.
And I'll teach you, teach you, teach you
I'll teach you the electric slide
chipshot
08-29-06, 04:03 PM
Who?
Come let me take you on a party ride
builder
08-29-06, 05:34 PM
I'm suppose to to sign a purhcase agreement for my condo in NoDA but this is what I am afraid of. When this condo development went out on the market, the 1st phase was bought up pretty quick with a couple units left. Since then the 2nd phase of the development is not selling well at all.
I'm thinking about backing out of my reservation agreement and hold off till beginning of next year and seeing what the market looks like. I'm sure there will be more enticing housing available.
Dude...that's what happened with my condo. The first 23 were snatched within 8 months. It took 3 more years to sell the next 23. And none of that was because of developers buying them. People will not live in a hood regardless of how nice looks inside the unit. Especially single white female buyers.
I'm expecting a big slide in certain parts of Charlotte. Especially the Uptown area. TOO many condos are going up. And even worse...they are being bought by investors that are planning on dumping them when the project is completed.
Buildings due to be done in 12+ months...investors are buying for a low earnest money deposit NOW. They are betting that as the project nears completion that the units will have appreciated...quite a bit. We are going to start seeing some of these things come to completion...then have 25% go on the market...LOOK OUT!
Don't developers limit the number of units that are reserved just to be flipped?
kickazzz2000
08-29-06, 06:49 PM
Don't developers limit the number of units that are reserved just to be flipped?
How would they know?
Freakshow
08-29-06, 07:06 PM
Don't developers limit the number of units that are reserved just to be flipped?
Generally the lenders do. They won't lend if over a certain % are investors.
Easy to tell. When the customer applies for the mortgage...certain things have to be shown to make it a primary residence, second home, or an investment property.
If your credit show you own a home in Charlotte...and you buy a condo in Uptown...it's an investment property...WAY more to it than that...I just don't want to get into it now.
I'm suppose to to sign a purhcase agreement for my condo in NoDA but this is what I am afraid of. When this condo development went out on the market, the 1st phase was bought up pretty quick with a couple units left. Since then the 2nd phase of the development is not selling well at all.
I'm thinking about backing out of my reservation agreement and hold off till beginning of next year and seeing what the market looks like. I'm sure there will be more enticing housing available.
Don't buy in a development until it's completed. I learned the hard way.
chipshot
08-29-06, 11:44 PM
People will not live in a hood regardless of how nice looks inside the unit.
shit, they are paying 400+ to live on the outskirts of my hood
Condos are just bad investments when they are building them by the thousands.
I have seen here an area where "urban reclaimation" was and is being attempted. All it took was a couple people getting shot in drive-bys to kick the legs out from under that chair.
I remember looking at houses in that area just east/southeast of Charlotte and thinking, "Gee this is a cool neighborhood, but where the hell do you go to the grocery store without packing a gun?"
Don't buy in a development until it's completed. I learned the hard way.
oh yeah....what happened?
I'm expecting a big slide in certain parts of Charlotte. Especially the Uptown area. TOO many condos are going up. And even worse...they are being bought by investors that are planning on dumping them when the project is completed.
Buildings due to be done in 12+ months...investors are buying for a low earnest money deposit NOW. They are betting that as the project nears completion that the units will have appreciated...quite a bit. We are going to start seeing some of these things come to completion...then have 25% go on the market...LOOK OUT!
most good developers only allow 10-15% of the presales to be investors. alot of the contracts actually require the purchaser to live there a certain amount of time before they can sell.
Don't buy in a development until it's completed. I learned the hard way.
I disagree with that.
Do your homework and buy early. Once a development is complete you don't get near the perks and the cost is much more, unless the development stinks. The first couple purchasers always get the best choices and prices, plus they lock the developer into a price before he can even test the market. It's a win win normally, unless the developer goes belly up.
Redsnapper
08-30-06, 01:43 PM
Here's my :twocents: There was/is a bubble in the housing market in certain areas, CA, NOVA, NJ, NY, MA, FL, as those bubbles burst and people can't afford to live in those areas, or as investors stop investing in those areas, b/c of small gains, they are looking to more affordable or potentially appreciating areas of the country, more specifically, in my case, Charlotte, and the entire state of NC. I talk to a bunch of people from NJ etc., that are or are planning on buying property here in NC, b/c it's so GD expensive everywhere else. So, as we all remember from our Micro-Economics class, supply and demand will dictate the market, there is now a higher demand for single family residences in N.C., thus property values will increase. I predict this to go on for 3 - 5 years until NC is caught up wtih the rest of the country in property values. Thus, now is OUR bubble, and there are profits to be made in real estate in NC. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
Once again the most important aspect is forgotten. Interest rates push the market. Rates increase and buyers decrease. Just the way it works.
chipshot
08-30-06, 02:36 PM
I remember looking at houses in that area just east/southeast of Charlotte and thinking, "Gee this is a cool neighborhood, but where the hell do you go to the grocery store without packing a gun?"
Where's that Myers Park?
THE GUTTER
08-30-06, 03:22 PM
I found a condo in Whrightsville Beach in my price range. If it does become a buyers market, I may get it in March. Depends on rates and such. Everything down here has increased so much I'm not sure if the bubble bursts that it would make a damn difference.
Redsnapper
08-30-06, 03:43 PM
Once again the most important aspect is forgotten. Interest rates push the market. Rates increase and buyers decrease. Just the way it works.
Yeah, but rates have been going down this last month (don't tell my customers), even if rates do increase or continue to increase, if the purchase price is low enough, makes the mortgage still affordable, and property values increase. I think this is true for single family residences, condos have flooded the market, they're out. Disclaimer, no one can predict the future, this is complete opinion, but based on certain facts.
Once again the most important aspect is forgotten. Interest rates push the market. Rates increase and buyers decrease. Just the way it works.
Well, that was the question we asked when we bought our house in 2004:
What is our house realistically worth if rates went to 8% (from 6% at the time)? It's one of the things that kept us out of an ARM. I wasn't sure we'd be able to unload the house by the time the rate ballooned either.
I guess I was just looking for some anecdotes from folks. I spent last weekend in Philly and the condo market there (in the city) has collapsed. I have no idea why anyone would want a good view of Camden anyway. But it's bad. Same thing here in DC. Developers are now renting places that flippers were fighting to buy a year ago. The entire herd has gone from buying to sitting.
And then there's my neighbirs....they have cut the price on their house again and still no takers. It looks like they will be staying - which is cool. We like them. :) Glad to see you got rid of your townhouse VA49er...
Yeah, but rates have been going down this last month (don't tell my customers), even if rates do increase or continue to increase, if the purchase price is low enough, makes the mortgage still affordable, and property values increase. I think this is true for single family residences, condos have flooded the market, they're out. Disclaimer, no one can predict the future, this is complete opinion, but based on certain facts.
yeah...I suppose you can give stuff away again like they did early 90s and people will buy.....but sells will still be down as long as interest rates are on the rise.
One other thing.... it looks like - for once in my life - we timed it just right when refinancing the house. It was appraised right before the market slowed so we maxed out on the appraisal value and borrowed like hell on it. Fixed rate. :woohoo:
Redsnapper
08-30-06, 04:12 PM
One other thing.... it looks like - for once in my life - we timed it just right when refinancing the house. It was appraised right before the market slowed so we maxed out on the appraisal value and borrowed like hell on it. Fixed rate. :woohoo:
Good job, KShead!!
It's not long term for me living in a condo but from the reports of housing on the decline, it might be a better bet for me to wait till next year to see how things play out.
Lowe's stock is down, Home Depot is down, Builders are down, REIT funds are down...
I might just look for a single family home if I wait till next year...
Sounds like a good plan to me. Over a trillion dollars in ARM loans will come due next year and more than a few of the people that got those loans will not be able to afford the adjusted rate and will be selling just to get rid of the debt. Maybe you'll be able to pick up a deal.
Freakshow
08-30-06, 07:26 PM
Good job, KShead!!
KShead...hope you don't need to move...or you'll be stuck!
ville4life
08-30-06, 10:43 PM
its true that there are a lot of real estate bubbles that are busting, but charlotte is not and will not be one of those, at least not within the next few years. charlotte is behind comparable cities as far as real estate prices go. also, our population growth rate is higher than most other places our size or larger. we're wayy behind on the urban living thing...just because no one wanted to stay downtown 5 years ago doesn't mean condo demand isn't there today. the typical real estate consumer today is wayy different than what charlotte has been used to, and i think most of the condo units will sell-out and remain sold-out.
I just backed out of my reservation agreement with my condo unit. There are just too many variables that I could put more money down on a sales agreement.
kickazzz2000
09-05-06, 09:28 PM
its true that there are a lot of real estate bubbles that are busting, but charlotte is not and will not be one of those, at least not within the next few years. charlotte is behind comparable cities as far as real estate prices go. also, our population growth rate is higher than most other places our size or larger. we're wayy behind on the urban living thing...just because no one wanted to stay downtown 5 years ago doesn't mean condo demand isn't there today. the typical real estate consumer today is wayy different than what charlotte has been used to, and i think most of the condo units will sell-out and remain sold-out.
Agreed, theres still a lot of pent-up demand that is being satisfied. Once a certain critical mass is reached (not quite there yet), we will probably see an acceleration in condo growth in the uptown area. Usually this will be reached when there are enough people living uptown to justify retail in walking distance of most blocks of the uptown area (Eckerd's, Harris Teeter, etc). I think a lot of people are hesitant at this time and are kinda sittin on the fence, but once this first wave of condos fills up, we might see a lot of those folks jump across.
OK, I (single guy) recently decided on buying a single family house in south charlotte, rather than buying an overpriced condo downtown ( even though I'd rather live in that area). Good move or Bad move ?
I just figured I'd be able to resell this place MUCH easier.
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