View Full Version : my draft
chipshotx
08-20-07, 03:56 PM
I'm not too sure about this one
Westbrook
Rudi Johnson
McNabb
Colston
Calvin Johnson (reached)
Thomas Jones
Crumpler
L. Coles
P. Rivers
K. Curtis
L. Betts
Drew Bennett
Brandon Jones
Carolina
Vinatieri
slydevl
08-20-07, 04:09 PM
Trade Crumpler pronto
He is going to suck this year
chipshotx
08-20-07, 04:14 PM
Trade Crumpler pronto
He is going to suck this year
Why? Maybe the offense they run won't feature him like previous years? My logic was that they still have questionable QB play which could lead to dump offs to the TE. The league rewards receptions. I was sort of going for it. I gambled on Calvin Johnson to excel and McNabb staying healthy.
slydevl
08-20-07, 04:20 PM
He's a gimp for one.
Second, Harrington blows and doesn't have the rapport that Vick had with Crumpler (think locking in like Delhomme does on Smith).
Third, Atlanta actually has some credible WRs now and I hear they will be running a lot of 3 wide sets and Petrino historically hasn't used the TE that much in Louisville.
chipshotx
08-20-07, 04:23 PM
shit, wasn't aware of Crumpler's knees
Westbrook great until he gets injured
Rudi Johnson steady performer who won't wow but won't disappoint either
McNabb few QBs are worth taking by the third round, and McNabb is too risky
Colston he will come back to earth in a big way. He's someone to avoid in drafts.
Calvin Johnson (reached) yeah, you did, but not by too much
Thomas Jones he should do well with the Jets.
Crumpler Harrington hasn't traditionally used the TE much, nor has Petrino
L. Coles good value at this point
P. Rivers see how your draft would have been better with someone else in the 3rd?
K. Curtis very good value, my favorite WR sleeper
L. Betts kind of early with you not owning Portis
Drew Bennett third WR who won't have much value until next year
Brandon Jones popular sleeper WR, but I don't see it
Carolina good defense
Vinatieri good kicker
I wouldn't dump Crumpler. He'll be ok, just not as strong as in recent years.
chipshotx
08-20-07, 04:27 PM
see how your draft would have been better with someone else in the 3rd?
Meaning you think Rivers would be a viable starter?
slydevl
08-20-07, 04:32 PM
Meaning you think Rivers would be a viable starter?
I think so. You could have got Leinart later as well.
chipshotx
08-20-07, 04:34 PM
I think so. You could have got Leinart later as well.
I grabbed a QB two rounds earlier than I planned. Beer :doh:
Taking QBs too early is the most common mistake in fantasy drafts. Manning is worth a first in 6 points per TD leagues and a late first or early second in 4 pointers, then Palmer in the second, and Brady in the late second or third. After that, you might as well wait until the 7th round and take the best guy left on the board. There have been some drafts when I've actually waited until the 10th to take my starting QB, especially in leagues that only count 4 points per passing TD.
I hate the fact that RBs are so valuable in fantasy football (fantasy baseball is a much more balanced and interesting format and is much less luck-influenced than FF), but they are.
chipshotx
08-20-07, 05:44 PM
Lesson learned, I know that and just got antsy. I will keep my composure for my other draft.
I hate the fact that RBs are so valuable in fantasy football (fantasy baseball is a much more balanced and interesting format and is much less luck-influenced than FF), but they are.
i don't understand...there's not one set way to score all fantasy football leagues. if it's unbalanced, then adjust the scoring.
i don't understand...there's not one set way to score all fantasy football leagues. if it's unbalanced, then adjust the scoring.
That's easier said than done. Remember, it's not the total points that matters but rather the distribution. The best QBs will score more raw points than the best RBs in most set-ups, but they're still not nearly as valuable as the top RBs because what matters is how those players compared to the worst player starting for a team.
For instance, take a 12 team league with 1 RB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, DEF. I have Peyton Manning projected for 267 points and LaDainian Tomlinson for 220. But I have the 12th best QB (Delhomme) down for 183, compared with the 24th best RB's 107. So that's an advantage of 84 points over the bottom for Manning and 113 points for LT. Requiring two QBs per team is too drastic a change, as it makes quarterbacks far more valuable than any other position.
It is possible to fool around with the scoring system itself, and 6 points per passing TD definitely creates more stratification and thus more incentive to draft a QB early than 4 points per passing TD. You might be able to put the top QBs on par with the top RBs if you increased to 8 points per passing TD or something, but most people wouldn't go along with that kind of change. 4 points per passing TD only came about because people who didn't understand the mathematics thought that QBs actually needed to have lower total points values to put those in line with RBs, not realizing that the total points values are irrelevant. It doesn't matter if the scoring system allows QBs to end up with 8,000,000 points compared to 200 for RBs if the gap between the best and worst starting QBs is still less than the best and worst starting RBs.
And on a completely separate note, I've been pushing people to go with auctions in fantasy football now. Having the first pick and thus the ability to draft LaDainian Tomlinson is too enormous of an advantage. Even back in our first league together, Larry, Edgerrin James and Marshall Faulk were far and away better than any other player. Going with an auction not only allows every team to have a shot at getting LT if they want to, but it makes him more expensive. Instead of costing the maximum amount of a first round pick, in an auction he can cost half or more of your salary cap. That makes the playing field more level for those who don't end up with him, as opposed to the poor saps in a draft who have to hope that the LT owner screws up the rest of his picks.
slydevl
08-21-07, 10:15 AM
And on a completely separate note, I've been pushing people to go with auctions in fantasy football now. Having the first pick and thus the ability to draft LaDainian Tomlinson is too enormous of an advantage. Even back in our first league together, Larry, Edgerrin James and Marshall Faulk were far and away better than any other player. Going with an auction not only allows every team to have a shot at getting LT if they want to, but it makes him more expensive. Instead of costing the maximum amount of a first round pick, in an auction he can cost half or more of your salary cap. That makes the playing field more level for those who don't end up with him, as opposed to the poor saps in a draft who have to hope that the LT owner screws up the rest of his picks.
I COMPLETELY agree. Unfortunately my league is filled with complete fucking morons that are too lazy to prepare for an auction draft.
In a 10 person league the difference between picks 1,20,21 and 10,11,30 is insane. You might as well just have the lottery and call the season right there.
chipshotx
08-22-07, 10:36 PM
I decided to go drinking instead of draft. I may have done better with autodraft.
Jon Kitna
Lee Evans
Andre Johnson
Joey Galloway
Larry Johnson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jason Witten
Kevin Curtis
Brandon Jacobs
Reuben Droughns
Michael Turner
Brandon Marshall
Chris Henry
Bobby Wade
Trent Green
Marcus Pollard
Robbie Gould
Dallas
San Francisco
That's easier said than done. Remember, it's not the total points that matters but rather the distribution. The best QBs will score more raw points than the best RBs in most set-ups, but they're still not nearly as valuable as the top RBs because what matters is how those players compared to the worst player starting for a team.
For instance, take a 12 team league with 1 RB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, DEF. I have Peyton Manning projected for 267 points and LaDainian Tomlinson for 220. But I have the 12th best QB (Delhomme) down for 183, compared with the 24th best RB's 107. So that's an advantage of 84 points over the bottom for Manning and 113 points for LT. Requiring two QBs per team is too drastic a change, as it makes quarterbacks far more valuable than any other position.
It is possible to fool around with the scoring system itself, and 6 points per passing TD definitely creates more stratification and thus more incentive to draft a QB early than 4 points per passing TD. You might be able to put the top QBs on par with the top RBs if you increased to 8 points per passing TD or something, but most people wouldn't go along with that kind of change. 4 points per passing TD only came about because people who didn't understand the mathematics thought that QBs actually needed to have lower total points values to put those in line with RBs, not realizing that the total points values are irrelevant. It doesn't matter if the scoring system allows QBs to end up with 8,000,000 points compared to 200 for RBs if the gap between the best and worst starting QBs is still less than the best and worst starting RBs.
And on a completely separate note, I've been pushing people to go with auctions in fantasy football now. Having the first pick and thus the ability to draft LaDainian Tomlinson is too enormous of an advantage. Even back in our first league together, Larry, Edgerrin James and Marshall Faulk were far and away better than any other player. Going with an auction not only allows every team to have a shot at getting LT if they want to, but it makes him more expensive. Instead of costing the maximum amount of a first round pick, in an auction he can cost half or more of your salary cap. That makes the playing field more level for those who don't end up with him, as opposed to the poor saps in a draft who have to hope that the LT owner screws up the rest of his picks.
i need to dig around and show you my league's rules.
VERy different.
I remember you telling me about them, but it takes an unusual set of owners to agree on something that unique.
chipshotx
08-22-07, 10:54 PM
For that autodraft league I have been offered T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Drew Carter for Maurice Jones Drew.
??
setup
Roster Positions: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/T, W/R, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
Stat Categories: Completions (.25)
Passing Yards (30 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions (-1)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (6)
Receptions (.75)
Reception Yards (20 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (6)
Return Yards (10 yards per point)
Return Touchdowns (6)
2-Point Conversions (2)
Fumbles (-1)
Fumbles Lost (-2)
Offensive Fumble Return TD (6)
Field Goals 0-19 Yards (3)
Field Goals 20-29 Yards (3)
Field Goals 30-39 Yards (3)
Field Goals 40-49 Yards (3)
Field Goals 50+ Yards (3)
Point After Attempt Made (1)
Sack (1)
Interception (2)
Fumble Recovery (3)
Touchdown (6)
Safety (2)
Block Kick (3)
Return Yards (10 yards per point)
Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns (6)
Points Allowed 0 points (15)
Points Allowed 1-6 points (12)
Points Allowed 7-13 points (10)
Points Allowed 14-20 points (5)
Points Allowed 21-27 points (0)
Points Allowed 28-34 points (-5)
Points Allowed 35+ points (-15)
In most leagues I'm in favor of trading Drew because his perceived value is greater than his actual value, but yours places a premium on return yards, making Drew potentially one of the top 5 players in the league. That set-up is retarded, but you can exploit it by picking up any return men who are still available. You can check to see who those are by looking at the official team sites. If you can find guys like Drew who play some in the regular offense and return kicks (especially kicks & punts), then you're golden.
Mini-rant:
I hate weird set-ups because inevitably the people who actually pay attention to the scoring system and who can do just a little bit of math can totally fuck everyone else over. I had a league a couple of years ago where we decided to go with 2 QBs and I told them all that it was a stupid idea. They ignored me, so I exploited the mathematical complexity that only I understood and absolutely destroyed all of them.
I remember you telling me about them, but it takes an unusual set of owners to agree on something that unique.
yeah, but we've been playing this way since 1990. it's the only way that makes real sense to me.
i just won the league last year for the second time. i've got the trophy in my foyer. we get it re-engraved each season. i should have had four titles. :)
check out this thread: http://thisboardrocks.com/forum/showthread.php?t=39898
T_Schroll
08-23-07, 03:40 AM
mine from earlier tonight drafting 8th in a 10 team league
QB Mark Bulger
QB Donovan McNabb
RB Travis Henry
RB Willie Parker
RB DeShaun Foster
RB Fred Taylor
WR Deion Branch
WR Hines Ward
WR Joey Galloway
WR Isaac Bruce
TE Jason Witten
TE Dallas Clark
K John Kasay
DEF Miami
DEF Oakland
chipshotx
08-23-07, 08:51 AM
In most leagues I'm in favor of trading Drew because his perceived value is greater than his actual value, but yours places a premium on return yards, making Drew potentially one of the top 5 players in the league. That set-up is retarded, but you can exploit it by picking up any return men who are still available. You can check to see who those are by looking at the official team sites. If you can find guys like Drew who play some in the regular offense and return kicks (especially kicks & punts), then you're golden.
Mini-rant:
I hate weird set-ups because inevitably the people who actually pay attention to the scoring system and who can do just a little bit of math can totally fuck everyone else over. I had a league a couple of years ago where we decided to go with 2 QBs and I told them all that it was a stupid idea. They ignored me, so I exploited the mathematical complexity that only I understood and absolutely destroyed all of them.
yeah, it's just sort of a fuck off league but the guy who set it up (and configured it) couldn't make it to the draft at the last second. He ended up with Vick & Kenny Irons....lol
There are seval good return men still available. How far would you go with that? Would you keep Drew as a starting RB and then fill one of the flex positions with a return specialist? Ginn, Drummond, Travis Wilson are all available at quick glance.
10 yards/point is generous, but I'd look for guys who are contributing already on offense as well. Just a return guy? Dunno.
chipshotx
08-23-07, 09:21 AM
How much do you think Ginn will be worked into the offense this season?
How much do you think Ginn will be worked into the offense this season?
tell the truth I have no idea - that could go either way. He looks like ass so far.
edit - I also don't see any note of him returning kicks, just punts. No yardage in that.
I wouldn't drop your legitimately good players, but it would be fine to fill up your bench. Michael Turner just so happens to be a good option as well since he returns kicks for San Diego and will be involved with the regular offense, although not as much as Drew.
I think you can safely drop Droughns, Marshall, Henry, and Pollard (I think Wade will return kicks for Minnesota, plus he should be a starting WR, making him very valuable) for any returners who are available, preferably ones who qualify at WR. I'm not a fan of Trent Green this year either, so I'd think about swapping him if there is a decent QB still available. Your scoring system favors guys who pass a lot.
jacoby jones from houston is going to be a stud returner. he could secure the #2 WR position opposite andre johnson.
jacoby jones from houston is going to be a stud returner. he could secure the #2 WR position opposite andre johnson.
he had a punt return for a TD and caught a TD this weekend.
he is a super stud.
That's easier said than done. Remember, it's not the total points that matters but rather the distribution. The best QBs will score more raw points than the best RBs in most set-ups, but they're still not nearly as valuable as the top RBs because what matters is how those players compared to the worst player starting for a team.
For instance, take a 12 team league with 1 RB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, DEF. I have Peyton Manning projected for 267 points and LaDainian Tomlinson for 220. But I have the 12th best QB (Delhomme) down for 183, compared with the 24th best RB's 107. So that's an advantage of 84 points over the bottom for Manning and 113 points for LT. Requiring two QBs per team is too drastic a change, as it makes quarterbacks far more valuable than any other position.
.
VBD baby...live by it.
VBD baby...live by it.
Yeah, that approach arose in fantasy baseball about ten years ago and then football finally adopted it several years back, with FFG being head cheerleader.
chipshotx
08-27-07, 11:12 AM
So would you make a spreadsheet that takes every players projected stats and compare them to some definition of what the average player at that position would produce and rank them that way?
So would you make a spreadsheet that takes every players projected stats and compare them to some definition of what the average player at that position would produce and rank them that way?
Not the average, it's either the worst starter or the best player not starting depending upon your preference. When I was originally developing scoring systems in the '90s, I was using averages, but what it does is to skew the results to the extremes.
So basically you take each player's projected fantasy points total according to the scoring system (and projections accuracy is a whole 'nother can of worms), sort them, then go down to either the worst starter or best backup. You then take their raw points total and subtract it from everyone else's raw points total, thus giving you the points above replacement.
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